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COVID-19 Impact: Bad loans in banking sector may rise by Rs 5.5 lakh cr this fiscal, says India Ratings – Firstpost


Mumbai: With financial exercise coming to a standstill as a result of COVID-19 disaster, whole slippages in the banking system may rise as much as Rs 5.5 lakh crore in the present fiscal, says a report.

While slippages from the company sector may rise by Rs 3.4 lakh crore, for non-company segments it may improve by Rs 2.1 lakh crore in FY21, India Ratings and Research stated in the report.

The ranking company stated most sectors in the county are more likely to expertise various levels of income contraction throughout FY21 as a consequence of demand and provide disruptions.

“COVID-19 may drive total slippages of up to Rs 5.5 lakh crore (5.7 percent of the gross bank credit),” it stated.

Banks confronted elevated provisions ensuing from the company stress cycle over FY16-FY20 they usually had largely offered for the prevailing company stress and had been progressing in direction of a extra moderated credit score value cycle, the report stated.

Representational picture. Reuters.

However, the COVID-19 associated conditions are more likely to outcome in one other cycle of stress.

The ranking company stated as per a stress evaluation of 30,000 corporates, the entire customary-however-confused company pool may improve from 3.eight % of the entire financial institution credit score as of December 2019 to as much as 6.6 per cent in this fiscal.

Out of this, the company estimates corporates exposures of as much as 3.2 % of whole financial institution credit score are at a excessive danger of slippage.

The report additional stated the expansion slowdown as a result of COVID-19 outbreak will irritate the stress and slippages in the non-company segments — retail, agriculture and micro, small and medium enterprises.

“About 40 percent of the incremental slippages could come from the non-corporate segments,” it stated.

The ranking company stated the pre-COVID credit score prices estimates for FY21 present a rise of as much as 60 %, which might convey the profitability of most state-run banks below stress in FY21.

The credit score prices for the system may improve as much as Rs 2.7 lakh crore in FY21; round 70 % of which might be attributed to PSBs.

“If the accelerated provisioning regime is reinstated, then there could be additional credit costs of 0.3-0.6 percent. This could require the government to infuse additional capital into PSBs,” it stated.

The report expects the capital requirement for PSBs in the vary of Rs 30,000-55,000 crore in FY21 below a benign provisioning regime.





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